Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), India’s largest private-sector conglomerate, is once again at the center of market attention. With its share price climbing 24% year-to-date in 2025, trading at around ₹1,519 on the BSE, analysts are buzzing with optimism, setting ambitious target prices as high as ₹1,801. The catalysts? A bold foray into solar module production and the continued dominance of Reliance Jio in India’s telecom landscape. But can RIL’s stock rocket past ₹1,800, or will headwinds like market volatility and a potential Jio IPO delay ground its ascent? This article dives into the factors fueling RIL’s rally and the challenges that could shape its trajectory.
The Solar Surge: A New Energy Revolution
Reliance’s pivot to renewable energy, particularly its solar ambitions, is a major driver of the current stock optimism. At its recent analyst meet, RIL announced the commissioning of a 1 GW Heterojunction (HJT) solar module facility, with plans to scale it to a fully integrated 10 GW by early 2026. The company’s broader vision includes a 20 GW solar gigafactory by 2027, positioning it as a leader in India’s renewable energy push. This move aligns with India’s goal to expand solar capacity to 280 GW by 2030, up from 91 GW today, requiring annual installations of 20-50 GW.
Analysts, particularly from Nuvama, see this as a potential “Jio moment” for RIL, drawing parallels to the telecom disruption sparked by Jio’s 2017 launch. Nuvama’s bullish target of ₹1,801 hinges on the solar business achieving a $20 billion enterprise value (EV) at a 15x EV/EBITDA multiple, similar to peers like Waaree and Premier. They estimate that the New Energy segment, including solar modules and power generation, could contribute over 50% to RIL’s profit after tax (PAT) by FY30, with a projected 140% CAGR from FY26-30. “Reliance Industry Limited’s technology lead through partnerships with REC Solar and Caelux, coupled with its net-zero carbon goal by 2035, could trigger a valuation re-rating across its businesses,” notes Nuvama analyst Jal Irani.
Beyond solar, RIL is investing in green hydrogen, electrolyser manufacturing, and a 30 GWh battery facility, with a technology tie-up with Nel ASA. These initiatives underscore RIL’s ambition to transform its legacy oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business into a sustainable powerhouse. Morgan Stanley, with a target price of ₹1,617, highlights that global panel prices are stabilizing, and RIL’s scale could give it a competitive edge in both domestic and export markets, particularly in the U.S., where demand is rising due to tariffs on competitors like Bangladesh.
Jio’s Telecom Triumph: A Double-Edged Sword
Reliance Jio, Reliance Industry Limited’s telecom arm, remains a cornerstone of its growth story. With 488.2 million subscribers as of March 2025, including 191 million on True 5G, Jio commands a 40% market share in India’s telecom sector. Its operating revenue for FY24 grew 10.3% year-on-year to ₹1,00,119 crore, driven by tariff hikes and a robust subscriber mix. The average revenue per user (ARPU) rose to ₹206.2 in Q4 FY25, up from ₹181.7 the previous year, reflecting Jio’s focus on monetization.
The buzz around a potential Jio IPO in 2025 has fueled investor enthusiasm. Jefferies estimates a $112 billion valuation for Jio, suggesting a 7-15% upside for RIL’s stock. However, recent reports of a possible IPO delay have sparked volatility, with RIL shares dipping 1.2% intraday on July 9, 2025, after hitting ₹1,551. The IPO, expected to be one of India’s largest, could involve a mix of fresh share sales and an offer-for-sale by minority shareholders. Yet, concerns about retail investor participation and a potential holding company discount of 20-50% have tempered expectations. “The decision to spin off or IPO Jio hinges on balancing value unlocking with maintaining control,” says a Jefferies analyst.
Jio’s strategic moves, such as the launch of “Jio Brain” for AI integration and plans for an AI data center in Jamnagar, signal its ambition to evolve into a digital giant. Partnerships with Nvidia and collaborations with Google and Meta further bolster its competitive edge. However, challenges loom, including a loss of 1.65 crore subscribers since the June 2024 tariff hike and rising competition from Bharti Airtel, which reported a ₹7,753 crore net profit for H1 FY25.
Retail and Other Ventures: Supporting the Rally
Reliance Retail, with 19,340 stores and 349 million registered customers, continues to drive growth. In FY25, it recorded ₹88,620 crore in quarterly revenue, up 15.7% year-on-year, and an EBITDA of ₹6,711 crore. Acquisitions like Future Group’s retail assets and investments in FACEGYM and Just Dial have strengthened its position in India’s organized retail market, poised to benefit from rising urbanization and incomes.
Reliance Industry Limited’s media arm, JioStar, with 280 million paid subscribers on JioHotstar and a 34% television market share, adds another layer of diversification. Meanwhile, its O2C segment, despite macroeconomic challenges, contributed over 50% of RIL’s FY24 revenue of ₹9,14,000 crore, with analysts expecting a recovery in refining margins in FY26.
Risks and Challenges
Despite the optimism, Reliance Industry Limited faces hurdles. The stock’s 3.95% negative return in 2024 disappointed investors, and its current price-to-earnings ratio of 59.14 suggests a premium valuation. Market volatility, driven by global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, could cap gains. The O2C segment’s exposure to fluctuating oil prices remains a concern, and the New Energy business, while promising, is capital-intensive and may not yield significant profits until FY28.
The potential Jio IPO delay, coupled with subscriber losses post-tariff hikes, adds uncertainty. Competition in retail and telecom, particularly from Airtel and emerging players like Starlink, could pressure margins. Additionally, RIL’s high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.41 in FY25 raises questions about its ability to fund ambitious projects without straining its balance sheet.
Can RIL Break ₹1,800?
Analysts remain divided but largely bullish. Jefferies (₹3,580), Goldman Sachs (₹3,400), and CLSA (₹1,650) see significant upside, driven by Jio’s monetization, retail growth, and the solar pivot. Nuvama’s ₹1,801 target, the highest on the Street, hinges on the New Energy segment’s potential to mirror Jio’s 2017 impact. However, Bernstein’s more conservative ₹1,520 target reflects concerns about execution risks in new ventures.
For Reliance Industry Limited to breach ₹1,800, clarity on the Jio IPO timeline and sustained growth in solar production will be critical. The upcoming AGM in August/September 2025 is expected to provide updates on these fronts. If Reliance Industry Limited delivers on its New Energy roadmap and Jio maintains its telecom dominance, the stock could indeed rocket past ₹1,800, potentially reaching ₹2,000 by 2026. Yet, investors must weigh the risks of market corrections and operational challenges.
Conclusion
Reliance Industries is at an inflection point, blending its legacy strengths in O2C with futuristic bets on solar and digital services. The solar push and Jio’s evolution into an AI-driven telecom giant have sparked a rally, but the path to ₹1,800 is not without turbulence. As Mukesh Ambani steers RIL toward its net-zero goal and digital dominance, investors are betting on another blockbuster performance. Whether Reliance rockets to new highs or faces a bumpy ride depends on its ability to execute its ambitious vision in a volatile market.
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Last Updated on: Wednesday, July 9, 2025 6:52 pm by Hemang Warudkar | Published by: Hemang Warudkar on Wednesday, July 9, 2025 6:52 pm | News Categories: Business, General, Trending
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